Domestic consumption drives most nature loss in Brazil

Concern over the loss of forests, grasslands, wetlands and other biomes in Brazil often focuses on agricultural exports and the role of international markets. Yet this overlooks a much more important driver – consumption within the domestic market.

New research by Trase partners UCLouvain and the Federal University of Juiz de Fora, which has been accepted for publication in Environmental Research Letters, shows that most pressure on Brazilian biomes is linked to domestic consumption rather than foreign demand. The findings reveal how urban consumers, industries, service sectors and agricultural production are connected through complex internal supply chains that drive deforestation and vegetation conversion across Brazil.

To shed light on this critical issue, the research team developed an innovative method to capture the economic connections between regions within Brazil, as opposed to other analyses which treat the domestic market in a uniform way. It also captures deforestation and conversion in all biomes in Brazil, not just Amazônia which is the focus of public attention. The resulting database covers 47 biome-state regions, 36 economic sectors and four international trade partners (EU, US, China and the rest of the world). It uses data from multiple sources including municipal gross domestic product, labour statistics, agricultural production, household consumption and trade data.

To assess environmental impacts, the database combines MapBiomas land-use change data to estimate the amount of deforestation and conversion of native vegetation linked to domestic and international supply chains. Inter-regional trade flows were estimated using a model based on regional economic size and transport distances. To ensure consistency with the economic data, vegetation conversion data was averaged over 2010–2015.

Domestic markets are the main driver of deforestation and vegetation conversion

The research finds that 73% of all deforestation and conversion is associated with Brazilian consumption, compared with 27% linked to international markets. Despite this, most traceability initiatives, corporate commitments and regulatory requirements – in particular the EU Deforestation Regulation – target export-oriented supply chains. As a result, domestic drivers of nature loss receive far less attention from policymakers, companies and consumers.

Non-forest ecosystems remain overlooked

While deforestation has become the main focus of environmental governance, non-forest ecosystems continue to face intense pressure. Conversion of savannahs, grasslands and wetlands represents 55.3% of all vegetation conversion embodied in consumption, exceeding the area of forest loss, according to the research. Nevertheless, most corporate commitments focus on forests, leaving other ecosystems exposed. Forest 500 data, for example, reveals that companies are more than three times as likely to adopt zero-deforestation commitments than broader zero-conversion commitments. These findings highlight the importance of moving beyond a deforestation-only approach towards broader strategies that address the conversion of all native vegetation.

Local consumption is an important driver of conversion, while wealthy regions externalise their environmental costs

Across Brazil, 37% of deforestation and vegetation conversion was driven by local markets. Specifically in the Amazônia, 41.8% of conversion was linked to consumers living in the biome. Its cities and urban centres, where more that 70% of the population lives, are an important driver of conversion. Another 36.4% of conversion in the Amazônia was driven by consumption in other regions of Brazil, while 21.8% by international markets.

The Cerrado is the biome most affected by land-use change, with 1.18 million hectares (Mha) converted. Of this total, 26.6% was linked to international markets, 33.3% to local consumption and 40.1% to consumption in other regions of Brazil.

The results also reveal strong inter-regional connections between consumption and environmental impacts. In the Mata Atltântica region, particularly São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, more than 90% of the conversion linked to these economies occurs elsewhere – notably in the Cerrado (141,290 ha) and Amazônia (82,240 ha). This means that the environmental costs of these impacts are concentrated in commodity-producing regions, while the benefits of consumption accrue elsewhere. In the Pampa, the influence of the global market is more pronounced, chiefly due to land-use change linked to external demand, particularly Chinese soy imports.

Most impacts are linked to animal products, but responsibility extends beyond agriculture

Deforestation and vegetation conversion is often framed as a problem associated with a handful of agricultural commodities. Our results broadly support this perspective, showing that animal product supply chains account for around two-thirds of all vegetation conversion linked to final demand in Brazil, with beef playing a particularly prominent role. This concentration suggests that efforts to reduce nature loss cannot succeed without addressing the livestock sector, which remains the single largest source of land conversion across Brazilian supply chains.

At the same time, the demand behind these impacts extends well-beyond primary production. Dairy products alone account for 10.3% of total conversion despite receiving comparatively limited attention in sustainability debates, while sectors such as hotels, restaurants, cafés, retail, wholesale, and other services are collectively associated with a further 7.9% of conversion through their purchasing activities. These patterns reveal that nature loss is not driven solely by decisions made on farms, but also by consumption, processing industries, and service-oriented sectors that shape demand throughout the economy.

Looking beyond exports

The findings highlight the need to bring domestic markets to the centre of efforts to address deforestation and vegetation conversion in Brazil. While export-oriented regulations and sustainability initiatives have become increasingly important, they address only a minority of the conversion associated with Brazilian production. Strengthening traceability and monitoring within domestic supply chains, improving transparency around the environmental impacts embodied in inter-regional trade, and extending protections beyond forests to include savannahs, grasslands and wetlands could significantly expand the reach of current conservation efforts. Better integration of conservation objectives into food, agricultural and urban development policies will also be essential if Brazil is to tackle nature loss at scale.

The results also suggest that responsibility for nature loss extends well beyond export-facing supply chains and commodity producers. Retailers, food companies, restaurants, service sectors and other downstream actors all influence demand for products associated with vegetation conversion. As a result, approaches focused solely on zero-deforestation commitments may overlook a substantial share of ongoing pressures on native ecosystems. Expanding efforts towards broader zero-conversion approaches that cover all native vegetation, alongside greater supply chain transparency and engagement with suppliers, could help align economic activity with conservation objectives across a much larger portion of the Brazilian market.

At the same time, the research highlights the role of consumers and urban economies in shaping land-use change across the country. The connections between cities, consumption and conversion in agricultural frontiers often remain invisible, despite being deeply embedded in domestic supply chains. Increasing access to information about these links can help strengthen accountability and support more informed choices. Initiatives such as Trase’s sister platform, do Pasto ao Prato, illustrate how greater supply chain transparency can make environmental impacts more visible. Ultimately, bringing domestic demand into the conversation is essential if Brazil is to address the full scale of its nature footprint and move towards more sustainable patterns of production and consumption.

We gratefully acknowledge Fulbright Brasil and CAPES (grant 001) for supporting Damares’s PhD thesis in Brazil and in the United States. This project has received funding from the European Union (ERC, DOMESTIC, Grant agreement No. 101162844). Views and opinions expressed are however those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect those of the EU or the European Research Council. Neither the EU nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them. This work contributes to the Global Land Programme.

Read the research paper: Damares Lopes Afonso et al 2026 Environ. Res. Lett. in press https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aeacfe