The 'Beijing-Brasília effect': the $47bn trade nexus that could turn the tide for forests

Oxford, United Kingdom (18 March 2026) – Trase released a report showing how Brazil and China have the opportunity to use their powerful trade partnership to help curb deforestation and reduce climate change without compromising food security and economic stability.

The Brazil-China agricultural trade relationship, valued at nearly $47 billion annually, is the world's largest, exceeding US-China agricultural trade by 40%. Trase analysis shows:

• 52% of Brazil’s agricultural exports go to China (2023)
• 34% of China’s agricultural imports come from Brazil (2023)
• Brazil-China trade alone accounts for 25% of the deforestation risk linked to international agricultural commodity trade.

Given the scale of Brazil and China's agricultural trading relationship, joint action has the potential to benefit the sustainability of commodity trade globally, creating a phenomenon that Trase calls a ‘Beijing-Brasília effect’. [1]

“Brazil and China have outsized potential to influence the sustainability of global agricultural supply chains and contribute to safeguarding food security for billions of people,” says André Vasconcelos, Global Engagement Lead at Trase. “At a time when multilateral action faces growing challenges, bilateral cooperation can offer an effective pathway to deliver significant environmental and economic gains” .

Deforestation risk linked to Brazil-China trade is concentrated in a relatively small number of producing regions, making targeted and scalable action that drives systemic change achievable and impactful. While more than 1,500 Brazilian municipalities supply soy to China, just 73 account for 75% of the total deforestation risk.

The deep interdependence between the two countries, rooted in food security and economic stability, creates shared systemic risk, particularly as climate change and deforestation begin to undermine productivity and supply reliability. For example, a 2020 drought in southern Brazil cut soy and maize output in Rio Grande do Sul by 46% and 32% respectively. And a drought in the Amazon in 2021–2022 caused an estimated $13 billion loss to the soy harvest, leading to a 12% drop in Brazil’s agricultural GDP in early 2022.

The report highlights five strategic actions the two countries can enhance to make their trade relations greener, based on public policies and business initiatives already in place.

“Scaling up this cooperation can help set a powerful proof of concept, a Beijing-Brasilia effect, paving the way for broader South-South cooperation on sustainable trade", points out André Vasconcelos. “The foundations for unlocking this effect are already firmly in place: a proven record of environmental leadership, the significance of the bilateral trading partnership, and the central role of deforestation and low-carbon agriculture in ensuring supply chain resilience”.

The report comes out in a timely moment, as China finalises its 15th five-year plan, with a strong focus on greening its economy and strengthening food security. Trase report is available for download at https://doi.org/10.48650/23BZ-VK60.

For further information, contact:

Gisele Neuls, Trase Communications Lead at Global Canopy | g.souzaneuls@globalcanopy.org | +44(0)7925 128 159

Notes for Editors

[1] The phrase is derived from the ‘Brussels effect’ which describes the influence of European Union legislation in proactively driving up global environmental standards.

[2] A webinar with specialists will be held to discuss the report findings and possible paths forward on 15 of April, 1:00 pm CET. For early subscription for the webinar, please reach out to Gisele Neuls.

About Trase

Trase is a data-driven transparency initiative led by Global Canopy and Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI). We map international trade in agricultural commodities and provide open-access data, insights, and tools that help companies, financial institutions, and governments strengthen accountability for their sustainability goals. www.trase.earth