Can a 'Beijing-Brasília effect' help end deforestation?

The bilateral trade relationship between Brazil, as the world's largest agricultural exporter, and China, as its largest agricultural importer, is unparalleled. With a value of nearly $47 billion per year, this flow – dominated by soybeans and beef – is 40% larger than the next most significant trade relationship between the US and China. More than half of Brazil’s agricultural exports go to China, while about a third of China’s agricultural imports come from Brazil.

Given the scale of Brazil and China's agricultural trading relationship, joint action has the potential to benefit the sustainability of commodity trade globally, creating a phenomenon that Trase calls a ‘Beijing-Brasília effect’. The phrase is derived from the ‘Brussels effect’ which describes the influence of European Union legislation in proactively driving up global environmental standards. Yet the current political context is shifting. Challenges to multilateralism and shifting political priorities in Europe, the US, and other markets are weakening ambition on climate and biodiversity. In this context, South-South cooperation has emerged as a promising avenue for advancing global environmental governance. When it comes to sustainability of agricultural commodities trade, Brazil and China have the potential to set the direction.

Both countries show growing ambition on the world stage as demonstrated by Brazil’s presidency of COP30 climate summit in 2025 and China’s presidency of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework in 2022. Brazil and China are global leaders in the transition to a low-carbon economy. Brazil generates almost all of its electricity from renewable sources and is a global leader in biofuel production. China produces the majority of the world’s solar panels and wind turbines, and is the largest producer of electric vehicles. These advances have driven down the costs of low-carbon technologies, accelerating their deployment worldwide.

Tackling threats to food security from deforestation and climate change

The report highlights mounting evidence of the threat that deforestation, climate change and biodiversity loss pose to Brazil and China’s food security and economic stability. For instance, in 2020, a drought in southern Brazil caused a reduction of 46% and 32% of soy and maize production in Rio Grande do Sul – one of the country’s top exporting states. Another drought in 2021–2022 affected the soy harvest in the Amazon, resulting in an estimated $13 billion loss and contributing to a 12% decline in Brazil’s agricultural GDP in early 2022.

Brazil and China have outsized potential to influence the sustainability of global agricultural supply chains and contribute to safeguarding food security for billions of people. Trase analysis finds that Brazil-China trade accounts for 25% of the deforestation risk associated with all international trade in agricultural commodities. For China’s imports specifically, Brazil accounts for 80% of the risk that commodities were sourced from recently deforested land, with Brazilian cattle products alone representing 61% of China’s total risk.

The task of reducing deforestation via global commodity supply chains can appear complex and intractable. Yet Trase analysis shows that deforestation is concentrated in a relatively small number of producing regions, making targeted and scalable action that drives systemic change achievable and impactful. While more than 1,500 Brazilian municipalities supply soy to China, just 73 account for 75% of the total deforestation risk.

The foundations for unlocking a Beijing-Brasília effect on sustainable commodity trade are already firmly in place: a proven record of environmental leadership, the significance of the bilateral trading partnership, and the central role of deforestation and low-carbon agriculture in ensuring supply chain resilience.

Fully capitalising on this opportunity requires a joint roadmap. Five promising strategic priorities are:

1. Knowledge exchange and innovation: Building on existing scientific and technical ties, such as satellite monitoring programmes, to spur innovation in resilient and deforestation-free supply chains.
2. Unlocking finance: Leveraging Brazil's Tropical Forest Forever Facility and China's Kunming Biodiversity Fund to accelerate green finance for forest conservation and sustainable trade.
3. Setting joint standards: Developing mutually beneficial, forest-friendly trade principles that build on emerging industry commitments and improved traceability systems.
4. Tackling illegality: Strengthening collaboration on law enforcement and financial incentives to support Brazil’s commitment to curb illegal deforestation.
5. Strengthening South-South cooperation: Using the Brazil-China partnership as a powerful precedent for other developing nations to advance a joint sustainable-trade agenda.

Ana Toni, Chief Executive Officer of COP30, points out in her foreword that the report provides a powerful demonstration of how science and data cut through the complex task of greening global commodity supply chains: "Constructive partnerships among Global South countries with significant importance in trade can offer valuable examples of how cooperation, data, and shared ambition can support sustainable development."

Dr. Zhu Chunquan, Director of Nature-Positive Research Centre, said: “China and Brazil have a unique opportunity to strengthen South-South cooperation and lead a green revolution in agrifood systems. This report is a timely scientific assessment and call to action.”

Vasconcelos, A., Titley, M., & Gardner, T. (2026). The Beijing-Brasília effect: A new paradigm for sustainable commodity trade? Trase. https://doi.org/10.48650/23BZ-VK60