EU and China at risk from water scarcity via imports of Brazil beef and soy

Water is essential for the production of agricultural commodities. The ability to estimate the amount of rainfall, surface and groundwater required for commodity production enables us to understand the extent of this critical reliance, as well as the risks to companies, consumers and the environment of water scarcity.

Trase’s research is the first time that exposure of consumer markets to water scarcity risks has been calculated by linking water use data for beef and soy production at municipality level in Brazil to specific river basins, making its findings more accurate and compelling.

Our calculations of water use for Brazilian soy and beef were made possible thanks to new satellite data on irrigated soy fields and surface water in small farm reservoirs used as a source of drinking water for cattle. Trase’s research used data from MapBiomas, as well as crop water use data from Brazil's National Water and Sanitation Agency, to derive the municipal-level volume of water used by the Brazilian soy and beef sectors.

We estimate that soy production used a total of 1 cubic kilometre of irrigation water per year, while beef production used 10.4 km3/y over the 2015–2017 period. Together, this is equivalent to almost 40% of the capacity of Brazil’s Itaipú reservoir, one of the largest in the country. Trase’s estimate is larger than previously thought, particularly for beef production, as early studies did not take into account that almost 70% of its water use is due to evaporation from the more than one million small reservoirs across the country.

Hotspots of water use linked to soy and beef imports

By linking this new data on water use to Trase’s soy and beef supply chain maps, we can provide new insight into the sustainability of the trade in these commodities.

The research estimates that in 2017, exports of soy and beef from Brazil to China relied on 3.1 km3/y of water, while its soy and beef exports to the EU relied on 0.8 km3/y of water. Together this volume is equivalent to almost 36 million people each using 300 litres a day each for an entire year. Trase can link consumer countries to the specific Brazilian river basins that provide these water resources in a way that has not previously been possible.

The São Francisco river basin is the only one in which a greater volume of water was used for soy exports as opposed to beef exports. This basin encompasses the deforestation frontier of Matopiba located at the intersection of Brazil’s central and northeastern regions which has seen an increase in the use of irrigation in recent years. Between 2017 and 2023, the irrigated soybean area increased from 101,000 ha to 180,000 hectares in the states of the Matopiba region, led by Bahia.

Risks of water scarcity in soy and beef supply chains

Trase’s research finds that 18% of water use for China’s soy and beef imports from Brazil and 54% of water use for the EU’s soy and beef imports from Brazil came from river basins with either high or critical water scarcity. This means that a significant portion of the trade in these commodities is exposed to physical risks due to reduced water availability.

The river basins of Paraná, Tocantins-Araguaia, Amazon and São Francisco are key sources of water needed to produce and export soy and beef to China and the EU. However, these basins also supply water for domestic use, industry and energy generation, as well as for ecosystems. As climate change worsens, there is likely to be growing competition over diminishing water resources.

Need for collaboration on solutions

By identifying hotspots of water scarcity risks in supply chains, Trase’s research helps focus attention on areas where urgent action is needed. Measures need to be developed collaboratively as the issue affects a range of users. Trase recommends that:

• Better maps of on-farm water use for soy and beef production could help identify opportunities for more efficient water use. This is particularly the case for beef, for which the satellite detection of small farm reservoirs is only now possible at a large enough scale to establish country-wide benchmarks for evaporation. Improved practices to reduce the water footprint of soy and beef can reduce the reliance of supply chains on river basins, particularly those such as São Francisco that are already experiencing critical water scarcity.
• Greater collaboration among actors on the ground and in supply chains can ensure that costs and benefits are shared collectively. This includes investment in improving agricultural practices in places that stand to benefit the most, such as the Matopiba region.
• More joined-up thinking across measures to address different impacts such as deforestation and water use in supply chains. For example, the EU deforestation regulation could cause its sourcing patterns for soy and beef to shift away from areas at high risk of deforestation. However, this could inadvertently mean that the EU becomes more exposed to water scarcity risks.

Read Trase’s research paper: Lathuillière et al. (2025) International reliance of Brazil’s water on soy and beef supply chains.

Download the dataset including Trase’s soy and beef supply chain data linked to water use, deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation, enteric methane and manure emissions (beef) at https://zenodo.org/records/14921618