Oil palm deforestation exposure (10 years)

Annual oil palm deforestation exposure

Total emission exposure

Gross emission exposure from land use change

Net emission exposure from land use change

Emission exposure from peat subsidence

Emissions exposure from peat burning

Trade volume

Trade value

Oil palm planted area

The Trase ID for the mill where the commodity was processed.

The Trase ID for the refinery where the commodity was refined.

Name of the country where the commodity was produced

Province where the kabupaten of production is located

Name of the kabupaten (administrative region) where the commodity was produced

Description of the type of product classified according to the HS Code

Mill where the commodity was processed. Facilities data obtained from an updated version of the Universal Mill List maintained by the Conservation Economics Lab at UCSB. For more details please refer to the full methodology document

Corporate group which the mill belongs to (groups the mill column into parent companies where applicable)

Refinery where the commodity was refined. Facilities data obtained from AidEnvironment and Auriga's desk-based research. For more details please refer to the full methodology document

Corporate group which the refinery belongs to (groups the refinery column into parent companies where applicable)

Company, including subsidiaries, responsible for exporting the commodity

Corporate group responsible for exporting the commodity (groups the exporter column into parent companies where applicable)

Indicates whether the exporter group has a commitment covering NDPE (no deforestation, no peat, and no exploitation), no deforestation, or no conversion. Only these commitment types are included.

Company, including subsidiaries, responsible for importing the commodity

Corporate group responsible for importing the commodity (groups the importer column into parent companies where applicable)

The country where the product first goes to after export. The product could then be further processed and used within that country, or re-exported to another country as different products (e.g. biodiesels, oleochemicals, food products like cooking oil, etc.)

Aggregation of destination countries according to relevant economic blocs, including for example the European Union; not all economic blocs existing in the world are represented in the data

Industrial oil palm deforestation exposure measures natural forest loss converted to industrial plantations over a 10-year production window, incorporating a 3-year lag to the first harvest occurring 13 to 3 years prior to the target year and allocates the area to supply chain actors based on production volume. Natural forest loss converted to industrial oil palm plantations was derived from The TreeMap data available at Nusantara Atlas (https://nusantara-atlas.org/).

Annual oil palm deforestation exposure measures natural forest loss converted to industrial plantations occurring in the target year and allocates the area to supply chain actors based on production volume. Natural forest loss converted to industrial oil palm plantations was derived from The TreeMap data available at Nusantara Atlas (https://nusantara-atlas.org/).

Total greenhouse gas emissions (annual) associated with palm oil production, combining net emissions from land-use change (IPCC, 2014; Khasanah et al., 2015) with emissions from peat burning (Rodríguez Vásquez et al., 2021) and peat subsidence (Cooper et al., 2020). Emissions are allocated to actors along the supply chain based on production volume. Land use change information was derived from The TreeMap data available at Nusantara Atlas (https://nusantara-atlas.org/).

Gross greenhouse gas emissions from annual oil palm deforestation and non-forest land conversions (industrial oil palm plantations). Estimates are based on total biomass removal from forest and non-forest land covers (excl. soil carbon), using above-ground biomass from Harris et al. (2021), below-ground ratios from Spawn et al. (2020), carbon conversion factors from Diop et al. (2016), and a CO₂-eq conversion factor of 3.67 (IPCC, 2014). Emissions are allocated to actors along the supply chain based on production volume. Land use change information was derived from The TreeMap data available at Nusantara Atlas (https://nusantara-atlas.org/).

Net greenhouse gas emissions from annual oil palm deforestation and non-forest conversion (industrial oil palm plantations) were calculated as the difference between gross emissions from oil palm land-use change and sequestration in new plantations. Sequestration is calculated using above-ground biomass from Khasanah et al. (2015), root-to-shoot ratios from Guillaume et al. (2018), and IPCC (2014) conversion factors. Emissions are allocated to actors along the supply chain based on production volume. Land use change information was derived from The TreeMap data available at Nusantara Atlas (https://nusantara-atlas.org/).

Annual greenhouse gas emissions from peat subsidence linked to industrial palm oil production. The emissions are calculated based on the area of industrial oil palm plantations located on peatlands (Ministry of Agriculture, 2019) multiplied by an emission factor of 90 t CO₂-eq./ha following Cooper et al. (2020). Emissions are allocated to actors along the supply chain based on production volume. Land use change information was derived from The TreeMap data available at Nusantara Atlas (https://nusantara-atlas.org/).

Annual greenhouse gas emissions from peat soil burning linked to industrial palm oil production. The emissions are calculated based on the area of overlap between the burned areas and peat areas and attributed to oil palm based on the different land uses. Emissions were calculated using an average emission estimate for fire events on peat of 824 tonnes of CO₂-eq./ha provided by Rodríguez Vásquez et al., (2021). Emissions are allocated to actors along the supply chain based on production volume.

Volume of the traded commodity. The total value is the raw equivalent of the traded sub-products (for example, crude palm oil and palm kernel oil are converted to palm oil equivalent tonnes).

Value of the traded product at point of export in US dollars based on customs and trade data in FOB (Freight on Board).

Extent of industrial oil palm as detected by remote sensing analysis, derived from The TreeMap data available at Nusantara Atlas (https://nusantara-atlas.org/).

Unique ID for each province where the product was produced, formatted as 'ID-' followed by the geocode

Unique ID for each kabupaten where the product was produced, formatted as 'ID-' followed by the geocode

Country where the product was produced, described using the official ISO 2 code

The country where the product first goes to after export, described using the official ISO 2 code. For more details see the definition for the country_of_first_import column

Indonesia palm oil - Supply chain data

Jason Jon Benedict

Robert Heilmayr

In 2023, Indonesia produced 47 million tonnes of crude palm oil, solidifying its position as the world’s largest palm oil exporter, accounting for 54% of global exports. The palm oil industry has grown to become an important part of Indonesia’s economy, representing 

, and contributing to the labour sector by directly and indirectly 

. Much of this growth has been fuelled by international demand for palm oil products, although the domestic market is becoming an increasingly important buyer.

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Low deforestation amid rise in palm oil production

The expansion of oil palm plantations has been an important driver of deforestation in Indonesia for the past 20 years, 

accounting for one third (3 million hectares)

 of Indonesia’s loss of old-growth forest. This deforestation, alongside peatland drying and associated fires, is an important contributor to global climate change and biodiversity loss, as well as poor local air quality.

Over the past decade, Indonesia has achieved a reversal in deforestation for palm oil production. In 2018–2022, deforestation for industrial palm oil was 32,406 hectares per year – only 18% of its peak a decade earlier, in 2008–2012. Importantly, deforestation has fallen during a period of continued expansion of palm oil production. Although the decline in deforestation

 has been linked to a drop in the market value of crude palm oil

, the recent spike in palm oil prices has not yet been accompanied by a boom in oil palm-driven deforestation. However, this trend saw a slight reversal in 2022 due to an 18% increase in industrial oil palm-driven deforestation, though it remained lower than all previous years since 2001 except 2021.

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Despite declining rates of deforestation, 

2.4 million hectares of intact forest remains

 within Indonesia’s oil palm concessions. This large area of forest designated for palm oil production underscores both an opportunity for conservation, as well as the potential risk that further oil palm expansion may pose to Indonesia’s rainforest. A fundamental challenge over the coming decade will be to meet continued growth in demand for palm oil products while preventing a surge in deforestation.

Industrial palm-driven deforestation continues to be concentrated in Kalimantan

Although deforestation has generally declined across Indonesia over the past decade, several provinces continue to see significant conversion of forests to oil palm plantations. In recent years, deforestation for industrial palm oil production has been concentrated in the forest-rich provinces of Indonesian Borneo. Four provinces in Kalimantan accounted for 72% of all deforestation for palm oil in Indonesia in 2018–2022.

Sumatra, the largest palm oil-producing island, saw a 3.7-fold increase in industrial palm oil-driven deforestation in 2022 compared to 2020, which was its lowest point in almost two decades. Much of this new deforestation was clustered among a handful of concessions in North Sumatra. Nevertheless, Sumatra and the island of Papua, the new frontier of palm oil development in Indonesia, accounted for only 22% of the deforestation between 2018–2022.

Indonesia’s palm oil sector is notable for its widespread adoption of zero-deforestation commitments (ZDCs). More than 85% of observed palm oil exports

 are traded by companies with formal ZDCs.

By implementing these commitments, companies publicly disclose information about their supply chains. In 2021–2022, 91% of observed refined palm oil exports were sourced from refineries that publicly reported on the set of mills from which they purchased crude palm oil. By integrating these lists into the Trase supply chain model, we can compare the environmental performance of exporters who have adopted ZDCs with those who have not.

Overall, we find that exporters with and without ZDCs have similar rates of annual deforestation intensity – 0.27 ha for every 1,000 tonnes of palm oil for exporters with ZDCs compared to 0.23 ha for every 1,000 tonnes of palm oil for exporters without ZDCs. This shows that the decline in deforestation has been widespread throughout the sector as both ZDC and non-ZDC supply chains exhibit dramatically less deforestation than the sector-wide deforestation intensity experienced in 2012 (8.7 ha per 1,000 tonnes of palm oil).

Domestic demand for Indonesian palm oil is on the rise

Since 2013, India, China, and the European Union (EU) have been Indonesia’s largest palm oil export markets, together purchasing 47% of 2013–2022 exports. However, the relative importance of each of these markets has changed. In 2013, India (29% of exports) and the EU (17% of exports) were the biggest importers of Indonesian palm oil. By 2022, exports to India (12%) and the EU (10%) had declined, and China had become the largest importer of Indonesian palm oil, increasing its market share from 11% of exports in 2013 to 14% in 2022.

Importantly, Indonesian palm oil is increasingly used within Indonesia. Domestic use of palm oil for either local consumption or downstream manufacturing increased from 32% of production in 2018 to 44% in 2022

. Data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (known locally as GAKPI) shows that in 2022, 

over half of the domestically consumed palm oil

 was used for the biodiesel and oleochemical industry with the remainder used in food products.

The Indonesian government’s push to intensify downstreaming of the industry within the country and 

increase the share of palm oil-based biodiesel blending

 has been one driver of this growth in domestic demand and has been seen as a 

possible reason behind the supply shortage

 and increased domestic cooking oil prices that plagued Indonesia in late 2021 and early 2022. This led the government to implement various policies aimed at shifting palm oil towards domestic markets, including 

. These government-related policies and regulations are likely to contribute to the continuation of domestic consumption growth well beyond 2022.

In addition to being the largest markets for Indonesian palm oil, Indonesia, China and India all tend to source from supply chains with comparatively higher rates of deforestation exposure

. We estimate that these markets tend to rely on palm oil with twice the per-tonne deforestation exposure of exports destined for export to the EU.

The combination of large volumes and a relatively high rate of deforestation exposure means that the combined palm oil purchases of these three countries cover 75% of all of Indonesia’s palm oil deforestation exposure. Conversely, despite 98% of the palm oil exported to the US, EU and UK coming from companies with zero-deforestation pledges, these markets accounted for only 9% of Indonesia's palm oil production in 2022.

Indonesia’s palm oil sector is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions

Indonesia’s palm oil production is linked to a large amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fires on drained peatlands, peat subsidence and land-use conversion. We found that industrial palm oil production in Indonesia emitted an annual average of 220 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent between 2015 and 2022. This amounts to almost a fifth of Indonesia’s total annual emissions of 

Even though only 14% of palm oil plantations (2.2 million ha) in Indonesia are on carbon-rich peatlands, peatland 

 were responsible for nearly 92% of the palm oil sector’s average annual GHG emissions between 2015–2022.

Outside of the dry El Nino years in 2015 and 2019 which led to an increase in emissions due to peatland fires, the GHG emissions from palm oil production have remained relatively constant. It remains to be seen how the Indonesian government and palm oil sector will deal with the challenge of reducing emissions through the protection and conservation of forests while developing and sustaining palm oil-producing landscapes.

The authors thank the incredible community of researchers who have contributed to this research. In particular, this analysis wouldn’t have been possible without important contributions from Hilman Afif, Helen Bellfield, Harry Biddle, Kim Carlson, Toby Gardner, David Gaveau, Florian Gollnow, Akhmad Kamaluddin, Timer Manurung, Carina Mueller, Vivian Ribeiro, Yustinus Seno, Clément Suavet and Dedy Sukmara.

To reference this article, please use the following citation: Benedict, J., & Heilmayr, R. (2024). Indonesian palm oil exports and deforestation. Trase. 



Trase. (2024). SEI-PCS Indonesia palm oil v1.2.2 supply chain map: Data sources and methods. Trase. 



Benedict, J., Biddle, H., Gollnow, F., Heilmayr, R., Mueller, C., & Ribeiro, V. (2024). Indonesia palm oil (2021–2022) (Version 1.2.2) [Data set]. Trase. 

Indonesia palm oilExports and deforestation